China's bismuth-related product exports saw a significant decline MoM in February [SMM Data]

According to customs data, China's bismuth trioxide exports in February 2025 were 418.92 mt, down significantly MoM from 748.5 mt in January. China's unrefined bismuth and scrap exports in February 2025 were 35.11 mt, also down significantly MoM from 222.3 mt in January. China's refined bismuth and bismuth products exports in February 2025 were 4.01 mt, still down significantly MoM from 70.82 mt in January. Many market participants noted that on February 4, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs jointly announced that, according to the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China, the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China, the Customs Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Regulations on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items of the People's Republic of China, to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, with the approval of the State Council, it was decided to implement export controls on related items of tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium. The export control on bismuth mainly involves metallic bismuth and its products (including but not limited to ingots, blocks, beads, granules, powders, etc. (refer to customs commodity numbers: 8106101091, 8106101092, 8106101099, 8106109090, 8106901019, 8106901029, 8106901099, 8106909090)). After the announcement of the export control, it was expected and reasonable for China's bismuth-related product exports to decline significantly MoM in February, and it is also likely that the March exports will continue to decrease. In terms of the current bismuth market prices, although the overall bismuth product exports have decreased significantly, the refined bismuth market price experienced a rapid and significant increase in March. From around 90,000 yuan/mt at the end of February, it rose to about 155,000 yuan/mt by mid-March. Market participants stated that there are three main reasons for the overall increase in bismuth prices in March. First, after the release of the export control announcement, the overseas bismuth market, based on the interpretation of the policy, reached a consensus on the tightening of bismuth resources in the future overseas market. The shift in supply and demand relationships and increased speculative sentiment led to a rapid rise in overseas market prices, driving a bullish sentiment in the domestic market. Second, due to the tightening of domestic bismuth raw material resources, coupled with a decrease in bismuth production in February due to the Chinese New Year, the domestic supply became tighter, while the end-user sector also engaged in some restocking activities in March, pushing up the selling prices. Third, there was a strong speculative sentiment in the market, with a large influx of speculative funds into various related markets, accelerating the upward trend in prices. However, some market participants believe that since the fundamental supply and demand structure of the market has not completely changed, and given the unclear future market demand and bismuth oxide export situation, the sustained upward momentum of bismuth market prices is still insufficient. Therefore, recent bismuth prices have shown signs of weakening, with the upward trend stalling. Whether bismuth prices will have further upward momentum and space in the future will depend on continued observation of changes in the fundamentals.